Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2014

Session information

International Session (Oral)

Symbol S (Solid Earth Sciences) » S-SS Seismology

[S-SS01_2PM2] Earthquake predictability research after the 2011 Tohoku earthquake (2)

Fri. May 2, 2014 4:15 PM - 5:30 PM 419 (4F)

Convener:*Hiroshi Tsuruoka(Earthquake Research Institute, Tokyo Univ.), Danijel Schorlemmer(GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences), Naoshi Hirata(Earthquake Research Institute, the University of Tokyo), Chair:Hiroshi Tsuruoka(Earthquake Research Institute, Tokyo Univ.)

Modern earthquake predictability studies emphasize the importance of testing earthquake forecast models. Japan, California, New Zealand, and other regions are currently operating or developing regional centers for such testing experiments under the auspices of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). These experiments are yielding a better understanding not only of the models' basic features but also of particular physical aspects of earthquake occurrence. We solicit presentations about a wide variety of forecast models including statistical and/or physics-based models, their components, performance, and methods of testing. We would like to discuss problems in forecasting large earthquakes such as recent devastating events in Japan and New Zealand. In addition, evaluation methods of earthquake forecasting are discussed.

4:30 PM - 4:45 PM

*Danijel SCHORLEMMER1, Naoshi HIRATA2, Yuzo ISHIGAKI3, Kazuyoshi NANJO2, Hiroshi TSURUOKA2, Thomas BEUTIN1, Fabian EUCHNER4 (1.GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, 14473 Potsdam, Germany, 2.Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Tokyo 113-0032, Japan, 3.Seismological and Volcanological Department, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo 100-8122, Japan, 4.Institute of Geophysics, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland)