Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2014

Presentation information

Print

Oral

Symbol A (Atmospheric, Ocean, and Environmental Sciences) » A-CG Complex & General

[A-CG37_28PM1] Multi-scale ocean-atmosphere interaction in the tropics

Mon. Apr 28, 2014 2:15 PM - 4:00 PM 423 (4F)

Convener:*Motoki Nagura(Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology), Takuya Hasegawa(Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology), Ayako Seiki(Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology), Tomoki Tozuka(Department of Earth and Planetary Science, Graduate School of Science, The University of Tokyo), Hiroki Tokinaga(International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii), Masamichi Ohba(Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry (CRIEPI), Environmental Science Research Laboratory), Yukiko Imada(Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, the University of Tokyo), Chair:Takuya Hasegawa(Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology), Yukiko Imada(Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, the University of Tokyo)

3:45 PM - 4:00 PM

[ACG37-12] A drastic change in predictability of precipitation off the west coast of Australia after late 1990s

*Takeshi DOI1, Swadhin BEHERA1, Toshio YAMAGATA1 (1.JAMSTEC APL)

Keywords:Seasonal prediction, Precipitation, Ningaloo Nino

Global warming and natural decadal variability after late 1990s strongly warm the coastal ocean off West Australia, which drastically changed climate dynamics there. The warm ocean drives precipitation locally there after the late 1990s, while the local atmospheric variability or the remotely forced atmospheric bridges mainly controlled the local precipitaiton variability before that. By virtue of that, precipitation predictability off West Australia on a seasonal time scale is also drastically changed after late 1990s; austral summer precipitation off West Australia is significantly predictable 5 months ahead after late 1990s, while there is no predictability of that in 1980s and early 1990s. Although the high prediction skill of precipitation off West Australia is useful for its early warning to extreme events and reducing their damages, the extreme event itself might increase due to global warming and decadal climate variability through a local air-sea feedback.