[A-CG37_28PM1] 熱帯におけるマルチスケール大気海洋相互作用現象

[ACG37-12] オーストラリア西岸域における降水量の季節予測可能性とその1990年代後半からの劇的な変化について

*土井 威志¹、ベヘラ スワディヒン¹、山形 俊男¹ (1.独)海洋研究開発機構 アプリケーションラボ)

キーワード：季節予測, 降水量, ニンガルーニーニョ

Global warming and natural decadal variability after late 1990s strongly warm the coastal ocean off West Australia, which drastically changed climate dynamics there. The warm ocean drives precipitation locally there after the late 1990s, while the local atmospheric variability or the remotely forced atmospheric bridges mainly controlled the local precipitaiton variability before that. By virtue of that, precipitation predictability off West Australia on a seasonal time scale is also drastically changed after late 1990s; austral summer precipitation off West Australia is significantly predictable 5 months ahead after late 1990s, while there is no predictability of that in 1980s and early 1990s. Although the high prediction skill of precipitation off West Australia is useful for its early warning to extreme events and reducing their damages, the extreme event itself might increase due to global warming and decadal climate variability through a local air-sea feedback.