Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2014

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Oral

Symbol H (Human Geosciences) » H-SC Social Earth Sciences & Civil/Urban System Sciences

[H-SC25_30AM1] Human environment and disaster risk

Wed. Apr 30, 2014 9:00 AM - 10:45 AM 421 (4F)

Convener:*Tatsuto Aoki(School of Regional Development Studies, Kanazawa University), Yasuhiro Suzuki(Nagoya University), Mamoru Koarai(Geographic Information Analysis Research Division, Geography and Crustal Dynamics Research Center, Geographical Survey Institute), Toshihiko Sugai(Department of Natural Environmental Studies, Institute of Environmental Studies, Graduate School of Frontier Science, The University of Tokyo), Hiroshi Une(Geospacial Information Authority of Japan), Yoichi Nakamura(Department of Earth Sciences, Utsunomiya University), Jun Matsumoto(Deaprtment of Geography, Tokyo Metropolitan University), Shintaro Goto(Department of Environmental Systems Faculty of GEO-Environmental Science Rissho University), Keitarou Hara(Faculty of Informatics, Tokyo University of Information Sciences), Chair:Tatsuto Aoki(School of Regional Development Studies, Kanazawa University)

10:15 AM - 10:30 AM

[HSC25-P03_PG] A new methodology to assess the impacts of precipitation change on flood risk in Tokyo 23 ward Area

3-min talk in an oral session

*Junpei HIRANO1, Koji DAIRAKU1 (1.National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention)

Keywords:Flood risk, Precipitation change, Risk curve, Tokyo metropolitan area

n this study, we attempted to develop a new methodology for flood risk assessment in the Tokyo metropolitan area by considering the effect of precipitation change. By comparing the statistical distribution of the daily precipitation frequency for the whole study period, and those for flood occurrence days, we found that the distributions of the precipitation frequency for the flood occurrence days are corresponding to those for the whole study period. These results indicate that we can estimate flood damage based on frequency of daily precipitation. Based on these results, we estimated the flood damage for Tokyo based on distribution of daily precipitation frequency. We then created a flood-risk curve that represents the relationship between damage and exceeding probability of a flood. By comparing the newly developed flood-risk curve, based on the precipitation frequency, with those in the previous studies, we indicated that a newly developed flood-risk curve could evaluate the potential flood risk in Tokyo with high accuracy.