4:15 PM - 5:30 PM
[MIS31-P04] On the 6th phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
Keywords:CMP6, IPCC, Global Warming Projection, Model Intercomparison Project, Socio-economic Scenario, Climate Model
From 2013, when the 5th Assessment Report of IPCC WG1 was approved, scientists started discussion on framework of the next (6th) phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). A couple of meetings were held in Aspen, USA in August and in Victoria, Canada in October to arrange a system for implementing CMIP6 protocol for global warming projection experiments. It has been suggested that CMIP6 will be jointly managed by multiple communities in a distributed manner. That is, the "traditional" CMIP community only manages fundamental experiments common to most modeling groups regardless of their specific interest, while other model intercomparison projects (MIPs) cover those specific to their interest: MIPs possibly include, among others, C4MIP for carbon cycle, PMIP for paleoclimate, and GeoMIP for Geoengineering. These activities as a whole will construct CMIP6. The above-mentioned fundamental experiments might include idealized experiments such as CO2 1%/y increase, and experiments based on scenarios with and without mitigation policy. According to the schedule currently proposed, the socio-economic scenarios will be developed by the end of 2015, experimental design will be mostly fixed in early 2016, and scenario experiments will be conducted by modeling groups from 2017, whereas those fundamental experiments can be started earlier.