2:15 PM - 2:30 PM
★ [SSS01-01] Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability - Global Activities
Keywords:Earthquake forecasting, Seismic hazard, Statistical seismology, Earthquake statistics, Forecast testing
The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) aims to improve our understanding about the physics and predictability of earthquakes through rigorous and prospective testing of earthquake forecast models. The system-science character of earthquake prediction research demands an open and collaborative structure for experimentation in a variety of fault systems and tectonic regions. CSEP Testing Centers in California, New Zealand, Japan, and Europe are being developed to provide adequate infrastructure for predictability research. CSEP is currently running prospective, automated evaluations of more than 350 models in various testing regions, e.g. California, New Zealand, Japan, Italy, and globally. We present the evolution of CSEP since its inception in 2007 and discuss results from several types of CSEP experiments. Finally, we describe how CSEP is expanding into other areas, including the testing of earthquake early warning systems, geodetic transient detectors, intensity prediction equations, ground-motion prediction models, and other types of hazard models.