2:15 PM - 2:30 PM
*Shunichi NOMURA1 (1.Tokyo Institute of Technology)
International Session (Oral)
Symbol S (Solid Earth Sciences) » S-SS Seismology
Sun. May 24, 2015 2:15 PM - 4:00 PM 102B (1F)
Convener:*Hiroshi Tsuruoka(Earthquake Research Institute, Tokyo Univ.), Danijel Schorlemmer(GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences), Naoshi Hirata(Earthquake Research Institute, the University of Tokyo), Chair:Hiroshi Tsuruoka(Earthquake Research Institute, Tokyo Univ.), Danijel Schorlemmer(GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences)
Modern earthquake predictability studies emphasize the importance of testing earthquake forecast models. Japan, California, New Zealand, and other regions are currently operating or developing regional centers for such testing experiments under the auspices of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). The experiments in Japan were started on 1st November 2009 and various models are currently under test in three testing regions (so-called 'AllJapan', 'Mainland' and 'Kanto'), each covering different forecasting periods (1 day, 3 months, 1 year, and 3 years). The 2011 Tohoku earthquake and its aftershocks has provided a great opportunity for these testing experiments . This session aims at discussing their results and the lessons learned from this earthquake leading to improvements of earthquake forecast models. Current testing in Japan is limited to earthquake rates. We solicit presentations that discuss extending CSEP activities in Japan to the fields of external forecasts, hazard model testing, ground-motion prediction testing, risk model testing, and the development of new testing metrics. All presentations exploring the limits of understanding the earthquake phenomenon and its impact on society are welcome.
2:15 PM - 2:30 PM
*Shunichi NOMURA1 (1.Tokyo Institute of Technology)
2:30 PM - 2:45 PM
*Takahiro OMI1, Yosihiko OGATA2, Yoshito HIRATA1, Kazuyuki AIHARA1 (1.The Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo, 2.Institute of Statistical Mathematics)
2:45 PM - 3:00 PM
*Takeo ISHIBE1, Kenji SATAKE1, Shin'ichi SAKAI1, Kunihiko SHIMAZAKI1, Hiroshi TSURUOKA1, Yusuke YOKOTA2, Shigeki NAKAGAWA1, Naoshi HIRATA1 (1.Earthquake Research Institute, the University of Tokyo, 2.Japan Coast Guard, Hydrographic and oceanographic department)
3:00 PM - 3:15 PM
*Hiroshi TSURUOKA1, Naoshi HIRATA1 (1.ERI, Univ. Tokyo)
3:15 PM - 3:30 PM
*Yosihiko OGATA1 (1.The Institute of Statistical Mathematics)
3:30 PM - 3:45 PM
*Danijel SCHORLEMMER1, Thomas BEUTIN1, Florian FANSELOW1 (1.GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, 14473 Potsdam, Germany)
3:45 PM - 4:00 PM
*Sum Mak1, Danijel Schorlemmer1 (1.GFZ-Potsdam)