Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2015

Session information

International Session (Oral)

Symbol S (Solid Earth Sciences) » S-SS Seismology

[S-SS01] Exploring our limits in understanding earthquakes and improving our knowledge -CSEP Experiment in Japan-

Sun. May 24, 2015 4:15 PM - 6:00 PM 102B (1F)

Convener:*Hiroshi Tsuruoka(Earthquake Research Institute, Tokyo Univ.), Danijel Schorlemmer(GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences), Naoshi Hirata(Earthquake Research Institute, the University of Tokyo), Chair:Jiancang Zhuang(Institute of Statistical Mathematics), Takeo Ishibe(Earthquake Research Institute, Univ. of Tokyo)

Modern earthquake predictability studies emphasize the importance of testing earthquake forecast models. Japan, California, New Zealand, and other regions are currently operating or developing regional centers for such testing experiments under the auspices of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). The experiments in Japan were started on 1st November 2009 and various models are currently under test in three testing regions (so-called 'AllJapan', 'Mainland' and 'Kanto'), each covering different forecasting periods (1 day, 3 months, 1 year, and 3 years). The 2011 Tohoku earthquake and its aftershocks has provided a great opportunity for these testing experiments . This session aims at discussing their results and the lessons learned from this earthquake leading to improvements of earthquake forecast models. Current testing in Japan is limited to earthquake rates. We solicit presentations that discuss extending CSEP activities in Japan to the fields of external forecasts, hazard model testing, ground-motion prediction testing, risk model testing, and the development of new testing metrics. All presentations exploring the limits of understanding the earthquake phenomenon and its impact on society are welcome.

4:45 PM - 5:00 PM

*Danijel SCHORLEMMER1, Naoshi HIRATA2, Yuzo ISHIGAKI3, Kazuyoshi NANJO4, Hiroshi TSURUOKA2, Thomas BEUTIN1, Fabian EUCHNER5 (1.GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, 14473 Potsdam, Germany, 2.Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Tokyo 113-0032, Japan, 3.Seismological and Volcanological Department, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo 100-8122, Japan, 4.Institute of Advanced Science, Yokohama National University, Yokohama 240-8501, Japan, 5.Institute of Geophysics, ETH Zurich, Switzerland)