Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2015

Presentation information


Symbol M (Multidisciplinary and Interdisciplinary) » M-ZZ Others

[M-ZZ45] Geoscience Studies: historical, philosophical and STS studies

Sun. May 24, 2015 11:00 AM - 12:45 PM 203 (2F)

Convener:*Michiko Yajima(Tokyo Medical and Dentel University), Shigeyuki Aoki(Center for Cultural Research and Studies, University of Aizu), Toshihiro Yamada(Chiba Prefectural Funabashi High School), Shigeo Yoshida(Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Faculty of Sciences, Kyushu University), Chair:Toshihiro Yamada(Chiba Prefectural Funabashi High School), Michiko Yajima(Tokyo Medical and Dentel University)

11:15 AM - 11:30 AM

[MZZ45-02] The history of the Japanese earthquake prediction study is a series of repetition

*Jiro TOMARI1 (1.none)

Keywords:the history of the Japanese earthquake prediction study, Blue Print, the Seismological Society of Japan, Imperial Earthquake Investigation Comittee, repetition

In the history of conventional Japanese seismology, it has been told that the history of the Japanese earthquake prediction study began with "Blue Print" (Prediction of Earthquakes: Progress to Date and Plans for Furthere Development) made in 1962.
But the time of the Seismological Society of Japan made with foreigner teachers in 1880, something which should be called an earthquake prediction study already existed. They're John Milne and Seikei Sekiya that it was its center. After Nobi earthquake of 1891, Earthquake Investigation Committee established to set up earthquake disaster reduction plans. In its committee, a study of earthquakes prediction was raised in one of the two pillars along with a study about the earthquake-resistant improvement of the structure. The history of the Japanese earthquake prediction study extends more than 130 years.
When I look at the history of the earthquake prediction study in temporal axes more than 130 years, an invisible thing is seen until now. It is that the similar history has been repeated.
Whenever a big earthquake occurs, earthquake interest in prediction of earthquakes becomes lively, and the new institutional frame about earthquake studies is made. New researchers enter the earthquake prediction study with this, and the study presents an active state. However, realization of the prediction of earthquakes is not an easy thing. Many researchers and the social interest cool down before long. Then a major earthquake hits again, and the history that the heat of the earthquake prediction study revived seemed to be repeated.
About the method of the earthquake prediction study, repetition is seen.
As for what kind of research subject becomes popular, repetition is also seen.