6:15 PM - 7:30 PM
[PCG30-P08] Prediction of Phoenicid
The meteors has relative velocity 10km/s to the earth, the lowest among the known meteors, and the dust trail encounters to Jupiter very frequently. The Phoenicids would appear in 2014. So we made prediction of Phoenicids in two dimension.
The great apparition in 1956 was caused by the simultaneous encounter of many dusttrails ejected in 18-19 centuries. On the other hand, the apparition in 2014 will caused by non-simultaneous encouner of the dusttrails ejected in 19-20 centuries. So we assumed the apparition in 2014 would not be so many. The observation result was about HR5.
Phoenicids has 95-year periodicy. So the next apparition will be in 2015.