Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2015

Presentation information


Symbol S (Solid Earth Sciences) » S-CG Complex & General

[S-CG56] Nuclear Power Plants in Japan and Earth Science: Given the limits of earthquake and volcano science

Wed. May 27, 2015 9:00 AM - 10:45 AM 103 (1F)

Convener:*Hitoshi Kawakatsu(Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo), Satoshi Kaneshima(Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Kyushu University), Daisuke Suetsugu(Institute of Research on Earth Evolution, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology), Manabu Hashimoto(Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University), Chair:Hitoshi Kawakatsu(Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo), Daisuke Suetsugu(Institute of Research on Earth Evolution, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology)

9:00 AM - 9:03 AM

[SCG56-P01] Nuclear power plant and pinpoint earthquake prediction


Keywords:nuclear power plant, peak gust, earthquake prediction, dry slot, satellite image

Seasonality of the earthquake is reported, but even modern science is considered to be the mystery that cannot be settled. It is a fact December has many giant earthquakes of the Nankai trough, and not to be up from March to July. It is said, it "is scientific basics I hypothesize based on a fact, and to inspect the hypothesis". In other words, it means that a hypothesis is wrong if there is contradiction in an inspection process.
Plate tectonics theory is still a hypothesis. Because it contradicts it in a fact of the seasonality of the earthquake, this hypothesis gets a wrong this hypothesis. However, it thinks whether it is forgotten that a hypothesis is a hypothesis that a hypothesis is not going to be changed.
As a result of returning to scientific basics, and having studied the driving force except the mantle convection, I find a method to foresee an earthquake at the same time to solve this contradiction and have already announced it in Japan Seismological Society of Japan and JPGU. Unfortunately foretelling an earthquake itself has not been yet received including this method by the earthquake learned society. Therefore, the security of the nuclear power plant is lectured on based on a wrong hypothesis on the premise that earthquake prediction is not possible, besides.
However, there is already this earthquake prediction in the level that there are many results and can predict. The security of the nuclear power plant should be discussed based on it. I explain method of scientific earthquake prediction below.

2. Method of scientific earthquake prediction
As a result of having analyzed many major earthquakes, the strong wind of the downward air current when time and the low pressure which became the extratropical cyclone developed collided in the earth crust, and it was estimated by a typhoon when I had a major earthquake at a collision spot several months later. I can watch the strong wind of this downward air current as a dry slot (domain without the cloud) in a satellite image. And it was estimated that the tip (or the origin) became the epicenter. Width of the tip of the dry slot shows the rough size of the focal region (cf. Fig. 1). In other words, I show the rough volume of earthquake. When there is a remarkable dry slot, more than M 6.5, it is estimated that it is less than M 6.5 when there is not a remarkable dry slot. Certainty is high as a big earthquake. Outbreak time of the earthquakes is three months later on the average seven months later after one week.

3. Reduction of the nuclear power generation risk by the introduction of the pinpoint earthquake prediction
Earthquake vibration, the tsunami beyond the limit damaged a nuclear power plant by the Fukushima first nuclear plant accident, and radioactivity was released outside. Even if it is said that facilities were strengthened as earthquake, tsunami measures, there is uneasiness of the radioactive contamination because I do not know it whether you can tolerate it if you are operating it, and a giant earthquake comes. However, there is not uneasiness of the radioactive contamination if it does not operate. The large reduction of the risk is possible if I stop only an applicable nuclear power plant before major earthquake outbreak by a method to predict an earthquake occurrence place in pinpoint. Of course because it is not yet perfect, the stop that is not necessary is possible as a result mark, but the uneasiness of the radioactive contamination by the re-operation of the nuclear power generation largely disappears.

1.Takao Saruwatari, 2010, Earthquake prediction from peak gust (5) Analysisi of the satellite image, Japanese Seismological Society of Japan lecture proceeding, D31-03.