[A-AS22] ミクロスケール気象現象解明にむけた稠密観測・予報の新展開

[AAS22-01] 名古屋都市圏における温熱環境の将来予測とその不確実性

*原 政之¹、足立 幸穂²、日下 博幸³、木村 富士男⁴、高橋 洋⁵、馬 燮銚⁴ (1.埼玉県環境科学国際センター、2.独立行政法人理化学研究所 計算科学研究機構、3.筑波大学 計算科学研究センター、4.独立行政法人海洋研究開発機構、5.首都大学東京)

キーワード：都市気候, 都市ヒートアイランド, 気候予測, 力学的ダウンスケーリング, 領域気候モデリング

Urban canopy process is essential to investigate thermal environment in the near future, because surface air temperature (SAT) increase due to urban heat island is comparable to the one due to the global warming in the near future over major metropolitan areas in Japan. During the past 100 years, annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) increased about 2 ℃ in Nagoya, while the world mean SAT increased only 0.66 ℃. The difference in the SAT is mostly caused by the effect of the urban heat island (UHI). This study investigates the uncertainty in the near future thermal environmental projection of Nagoya metropolitan area which is third largest metropolitan area in Japan. The present climate simulation is conducted using a high-resolution numerical climate model, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, including an urban canopy sub-model. A future climate run is conducted using the pseudo-global-warming method, assuming the boundary conditions in the 2050s estimated by CMIP5 GCMs under the RCP scenarios.