Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2015

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Symbol A (Atmospheric and Hydrospheric Sciences) » A-CG Complex & General

[A-CG32] Multi-scale ocean-atmosphere interaction in the tropics

Wed. May 27, 2015 9:00 AM - 10:45 AM 202 (2F)

Convener:*Hiroki Tokinaga(Disaster Prevention Research Institute/Hakubi Center, Kyoto Univesity), Takuya Hasegawa(Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology), Ayako Seiki(Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology), Tomoki Tozuka(Department of Earth and Planetary Science, Graduate School of Science, The University of Tokyo), Motoki Nagura(Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology), Masamichi Ohba(Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry (CRIEPI), Environmental Science Research Laboratory), Yukiko Imada(Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, the University of Tokyo), Chair:Tomoki Tozuka(Department of Earth and Planetary Science, Graduate School of Science, The University of Tokyo), Ayako Seiki(Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology), Takuya Hasegawa(Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology)

9:00 AM - 9:15 AM

[ACG32-13] What interrupted the 2014 El Nino? - A possible cause in the South Pacific Ocean

*Yukiko IMADA1, Hiroaki TATEBE2, Masahiro WATANABE3, Masayoshi ISHII1, Masahide KIMOTO3 (1.Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, 2.Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, 3.Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology)

Keywords:ENSO, Seasonal Prediction, Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)

At the beginning of 2014, westerly wind bursts and large downwelling Kelvin waves were observed. There was a consensus among state-of-the-art forecasting models on the development of a large El Nino in the following summer and autumn. From June 2014, however, cold sea surface temperature anomalies developed unexpectedly in the cold tongue region and prevented development of an El Nino. Interestingly, our experimental seasonal prediction system based on the coupled general circulation model MIROC5 successfully predicted this event. Using this prediction and additional sensitivity experiments, we found an important role of the oceanic circulation in the South Pacific Ocean in the interruption of the El Nino in 2014.