Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2015

Presentation information

Oral

Symbol A (Atmospheric and Hydrospheric Sciences) » A-CC Cryospheric Sciences & Cold District Environment

[A-CC29] Ice cores and past environmental changes

Tue. May 26, 2015 2:15 PM - 4:00 PM 301A (3F)

Convener:*Kenji Kawamura(National Institute of Polar Research, Research Organization of Information and Systems), Minoru Ikehara(Center for Advanced Marine Core Research, Kochi University), Nozomu Takeuchi(Chiba University), Ayako Abe-Ouchi(Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo), Chair:Kenji Kawamura(National Institute of Polar Research, Research Organization of Information and Systems), Ayako Abe-Ouchi(Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo)

2:30 PM - 2:45 PM

[ACC29-02] Estimation of the age-depth relationship of Dome Fuji Ice Core using a sequential Bayesian approach

*Shin'ya NAKANO1, Kazue SUZUKI1, Kenji KAWAMURA2, Frederic Parrenin3, Tomoyuki HIGUCHI1 (1.The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, 2.National Institute of Polar Research, 3.Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Geophysique de l'Environnement)

Keywords:ice core, dating method, Bayesian estimation

We have developed a method for estimating the age as a function of depth in Domu Fuji Ice Core and evaluating its uncertainty. The age--depth relationship is mainly determined by the accumulation of snow at the site of the ice core and the thinning process due to the horizontal stretching and vertical compression of the ice layer. However, since neither the accumulation process nor the thinning process are fully understood, it is essential to incorporate observational information into a model that describes the accumulation and thinning processes. In the proposed technique, the age as a function of depth is estimated from age markers and delta-O-18 data. The estimation is achieved using the particle Markov chain Monte Carlo method, in which the sequential Monte Carlo method is combined with the Markov chain Monte Carlo method. The performance of the proposed technique is demonstrated by applying it to ice core data from Dome Fuji in Antarctica.