9:30 AM - 9:45 AM
[SSS30-03] Forecast experiments using friction law on occurrence times of the Kamaishi repeating earthquakes
Keywords:Kamaishi repeaters, occurrence time, prediction experiment, numerical simulation, rate and state dependent friction law, afterslip
In this study, we perform trial experiments on occurrence time forecast of the Kamaishi repeaters. 11 events occurred after the M9 events. Assuming various parameters, we calculate the occurrence times of the 10 events before the latest event. We select proper models by evaluating these models, and calculate the occurrence time of the 11th event using the selected models. Average of the calculated times would provide an estimate. We discuss how we should evaluate the models, and incorporate simulations into prediction schemes.