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[AAS02-05] Extraction of Favorable Environment Factors for Heavy Rainfall using Multiple Scenarios Obtained by Ensemble Forecasts
Keywords:heavy rainfall, ensemble forecast
In this study, 51 possible scenarios provided by an ensemble forecast of the northern Kyushu heavy rainfall (Kunii, 2013), which caused severe damage in Kumamoto, Fukuoka and Oita, were used.
Correlation coefficients between the rainfall amount and the environment factors, such as water vapor and southerly wind near the surface, provides the effective factors to judge whether heavy rainfall will occur or not. Because this method is the results of a first trial, further developments of the methods that extract useful information from the possible scenarios are needed.
A part of this research received support from the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, HPCI strategy program.