[S-SS03] New frontiers in earthquake statistics, physics-based earthquake forecasting, and earthquake model testing

Wed. May 25, 2016 1:45 PM - 3:15 PM 106 (1F)

Convener:*Hiroshi Tsuruoka(Earthquake Research Institute, Tokyo Univ.), Naoshi Hirata(Earthquake Research Institute, the University of Tokyo), Danijel Schorlemmer(GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences), Matt Gerstenberger(GNS Science), Chair:Matt Gerstenberger(GNS Science), Anne Elizabeth Strader(GFZ Potsdam)

Earthquake statistics, providing major contributions to earthquake forecast and hazard models, is moving towards combinations with physics-based models. Coulomb-based and rate and state-based models attempt to better describe stress and activity evolution for better forecasting seismicity rates. Global strain rates are combined with activity rates to improve long term forecasts.

Simultaneously, hazard models are nowadays incorporating more earthquake statistics than simple smoothed seismicity models for background seismicity. They are becoming increasingly time-dependent on various time scales beyond the established ETAS model. Statistics are included to describe temporal as well as spatial earthquake activity.

These developments are creating new challenges for model testing as more time scales and more complex models need to be implemented in the testing centers of the Collaboratory for Study of Earthquake Predictability. These testing centers (in California, Japan, New Zealand, and Europe) operate forecasting experiments in various regions of the world with more than 400 models under continuous testing.

We invite contributions about new statistical observations of earthquake occurrence, new earthquake forecast models (statistical or physics-based or combinations thereof), new ideas about how earthquake statistics can be used to improve seismic hazard assessment, and, last but not least, new or improved earthquake forecast testing metrics and procedures.

+Add all to schedule

1:45 PM - 2:00 PM

[SSS03-01] The Global Earthquake Activity Rate (GEAR) forecast test

★Invited papers

*David D Jackson¹, Peter Bird¹, Yan Y Kagan¹, Corne Kreemer², Ross Stein³ (1.University of California Los Angeles, 2.University of Nevada Reno, 3.Temblor.net)

2:00 PM - 2:15 PM

[SSS03-02] Hybrid Models and Time-dependent Hazard in New Zealand

*Matt Gerstenberger¹, David Rhoades, Annemarie Christophersen, David Harte, Bill Fry (1.GNS Science)

2:15 PM - 2:30 PM

[SSS03-03] 3D spatial models for seismicity beneath Kanto region

★Invited papers

*Yosihiko Ogata^1,2, Koichi Katsura¹, Hiroshi Tsuruoka², Naoshi Hirata² (1.The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Research Organization of Information and Systems, 2.Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo)

2:30 PM - 2:45 PM

[SSS03-04] Optimized physics-based earthquake forecasts for inland Japan

*Margarita Segkou¹, Jiancang Zhuang² (1.BGS, 2.ISM)

2:45 PM - 3:00 PM

[SSS03-05] Resolving Stress Singularities: a Retrospective Japan Rate-and-State Earthquake Forecast

*Anne Elizabeth Strader¹, Yosihiko Ogata^3,2, Naoshi Hirata², Hiroshi Tsuruoka², Danijel Schorlemmer¹ (1.GFZ Potsdam, 2.ERI, The University of Tokyo, 3.The Institute of Statistical Mathematics)

3:00 PM - 3:15 PM

[SSS03-06] Impact of automatic catalog quality on real-time aftershock forecasting

*Takahiro Omi¹, Yosihiko Ogata^2,3, Katsuhiko Shiomi⁴, Bogdan Enescu^2,5, Kaoru Sawazaki⁴, Kazuyuki Aihara¹ (1.Institue of Industrial Science, the University of Tokyo, 2.The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, 3.Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo, 4.National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, 5.Faculty of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Tsukuba)