5:15 PM - 6:30 PM
[ACG09-P05] Socio-economic implications of stabilization scenarios from MIROC-ESM
Keywords:MIROC-ESM, stabilization scenario, integrated assessment model
The emissions scenarios considered are consistent with the representative concentration pathway (RCP), and aim at a global radiative forcing by 2100 of around 4.5 W/m2 (RCP4.5) and 2.6 W/m2 (RCP2.6). The Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) is applied to study the developments in energy, land use and emissions throughout the 21st century. GCAM is an IAM based on a partial equilibrium approach, which resolves the balance in supply and demand across the energy, land use and agricultural sectors.
Compared to the standard RCPs, the emission scenarios from MIROC-ESM presented lower levels of allowable anthropogenic CO2 emissions for the same climate target. This is an outcome of the stronger feedback between the carbon-cycle and the climate, and the higher value for climate sensitivity assumed in MIROC-ESM in contrast to the climate model used in the development of RCPs. As a consequence, the changes in the energy and land systems are more drastic, while the cost of mitigations is higher. These differences are greater in the second half of the century.