3:30 PM - 4:45 PM
[ACG24-P04] Change in persistent extratropical regimes under an Arctic amplified climate
Keywords:Arctic region, Arctic Amplification, extreme event
Here we use a 100-member ensemble of historical simulations and future projections with a hi-resolution atmospheric general circulation model to show that as a result of change in the climatological atmospheric flow induced by the AA, the probability of occurrence of a specific circulation anomaly pattern will increase in future. This circulation pattern is strongly tied to winter cold spell over the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes in present climate, but not necessarily in the Arctic amplified future climate. This is because a reduced climatological meridional temperature gradient in lower troposphere acts to weaken the variance of surface temperature.