3:30 PM - 4:45 PM
[ACG24-P10] Endurance of larch forest ecosystems in eastern Siberia under warming trends
Keywords:Siberian Larch Forest, Climatic Change, Vegetation Model
We developed an integrated land surface model to analyze how the Siberian larch forest will react to current warming trends. This model analyzed interactions between vegetation dynamics and thermo-hydrology and showed that, under climatic conditions predicted by the IPCC's RCP scenarios 2.6 and 8.5, annual larch net primary production (NPP) increased about 2 and 3 times, respectively, by the end of 21st century compared with that in the 20th century. Soil water content during larch growing season showed no obvious trend, even after decay of surface permafrost and accompanying sub-surface runoff. A sensitivity test showed that the forecasted warming and pluvial trends extended leafing days of larches and reduced water shortages during the growing season, thereby increasing productivity.