5:15 PM - 6:30 PM
[G03-P13] "Intermediate term forecast" based on seismic intensity data base for understanding the usual seismisity
Keywords:Seismisity, Earthquake forecast, Seismic intensity data base, Homogeneous Poisson Process
The purpose of introducing the "Earthquake forecast" in our report is NOT to propose an original physical model nor statistical model developing the reliable method for earthquake forecast or prediction through the scientific discussion. The main purpose of this report is to introduce simple example to citizens to understand the common seismic activity based on the usual seismisity data. Therefore, we choose the seismic intensity database of JMA, not the earthquake catalog, to provide the parameters for our model, as intensity is easy to imagine the effect of earthquake, personally. The probability to feel fairly strong earthquake within several month to one year would be shown in a simple format understandable by anybody. Such kind of simple information would be helpful to realize the usual seismic activity, as well as to consider the individual risk mitigation action imaging the more destructive and less frequent earthquake occurrence.
The statistic model used for the "forecast" is Homogeneous Poisson Process, which presume minimum number of a priori parameter, the average recurrence term of the events based on the record of past events. We will show the example of "Intermediate term forecast" as the target term with three months and one year for 2015, and unit areas with each prefecture (Fig.1). As the evaluation of the "forecast" shows that the "Success rate" is around 70% to 90% and the "Alarm rate" is over 50%, it would be appropriate to understand usual seismic activity through this "forecast" like idea.