5:15 PM - 6:30 PM
[HDS19-P14] Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment along the Nankai Trough considering the diversity of earthquake fault models
Keywords:tsunami hazard assessment, probability, Nankai trough, long-term evaluation, tsunami simulation
In this study, we extend the hypothetical source areas from those exemplified by ERC(2013) to every possible source areas including those where eathquake occurrence yet to be identified and update a probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment along the Nankai trough. The total number of the hypothetical source areas is 85 and the number of the characterized earthquake fault models is 3928. We set probabilistic weights for each characterized earthquake fault models as follows:
i) For the 15 hypothetical source areas exemplified by ERC(2013), weights are calculated by following a probability re-distribution concept (ERC,2014).
ii) For the other hypothetical source areas larger than 3 segments, we classify them 15 groups which are recognized as parts of hypothetical source areas exemplified by ERC(2013), and divide the weights.
iii) For the hypothetical source areas smaller than 2 segments, we assume that their occurrence obeys a Gutenberg–Richter model calculated by the past seismic activity around the Nankai trough.