Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2016

Presentation information

International Session (Poster)

Symbol M (Multidisciplinary and Interdisciplinary) » M-IS Intersection

[M-IS03] Interdisciplinary studies on pre-earthquake processes

Wed. May 25, 2016 5:15 PM - 6:30 PM Poster Hall (International Exhibition Hall HALL6)

Convener:*Katsumi Hattori(Department of Earth Sciences, Graduate School of Science, Chiba University), Dimitar Ouzounov(Center of Excellence in Earth Systems Modeling & Observations (CEESMO) , Schmid College of Science & Technology Chapman University, Orange, California, USA), Jann-Yenq Liu(Institute of Space Science, National Central University, Taiwan), Qinghua Huang(Peking University)

5:15 PM - 6:30 PM

[MIS03-P12] Integrated earthquake forecast: combination of b-value monitoring and ionospheric precursors

*takaaki Kobari1, Pen Han1, Kastumi Hattori1 (1.Department of Earth Sciences, Graduate School of Science, Chiba University)

Keywords: Earthquake, Electromagnetic, b-value, Ionosphere

In recent years, there are many electromagnetic phenomenon preceding large earthquakes. Anomaly of the total electron content (TEC) is one of the most promising anomalies for the short-term earthquake forecast. On the other hand, it is reported that the b-value around the epicenter region decreases prior to the large earthquake. The b-value can compute using the Gutenberg Richter law. The lead time is around few or tens years. In this study, we investigate the effectiveness of the integrated analyses on the b-value for the middle-term forecast and TEC analysis for the short-term forecast. We select the Tokachi region as a test site. We will report the results of the b-value changes in space and time for the stress field change and GIM-TEC and/or GPS-TEC changes. In this report, we will focus on the two Tokachi-oki earthquakes in 2003 and 2008. They occurred on September 11, 2003 (M8.0) and September 26, 2009 (M7.1). In addition, we will show the results for other regions, if possible.