4:30 PM - 4:45 PM
[MIS08-05] Correlation between earthquake occurrence and the VHF propagation anomaly indicated by objectively produced prediction maps
Keywords:Earthquake prediction map, objective algorithm
After excluding the Undecided period, we measured “r” the fraction of the period of alarm ON and “s” the fraction of earthquakes that occurred during periods of Alarm ON. The gain of the map is calculated as G = s/r. We found G>1 for most prediction maps. We further calculated “p-value”. Our best p-value of 0.036 was obtained for the prediction map with L = 4days when it was evaluated against the occurrence of M>5 earthquakes. G in this case was 2.1.
The present result is not strong enough, but by refining the extraction criteria of anomaly, we think there’s a good chance to firmly establish that some of beyond the line of sight VHF propagation are earthquake precursors.