5:15 PM - 6:30 PM
[MIS34-P17] Prediction of the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake
Keywords:earthquake prediction, maximum instantaneous wind speed , nuclear power plant
When as a result of having analyzed many earthquakes, time and the low pressure that a typhoon became the extratropical cyclone developed, an intense downward air current occurred and knew that an earthquake occurred at the point that hit the ground, the surface of the water several months later. At the point where a downward air current was, increase of the maximum instantaneous wind speed was recognized. In addition, it was revealed that it came out as a domain without the cloud by the satellite image.
1) It is very likely to be the earthquake occurrence at the point where the maximum instantaneous wind speed for the first time in several years was recorded from several months.
2) Because width of the strong wind area or the width of the domain without the cloud accords with the width of the focal region as for the volume of earthquake, I can suppose it.
3) An earthquake is generated in a rear-entry position for seven months from one week from a strong wind day.
4) The direction of the wind near the epicenter accords with the axis of the mechanism solution.
2. Proof of the predictive method
After prediction method is announced by Seismological Society of Japan in 2010, there are many prediction examples and analysis samples 2011 northeastern offing earthquake, and I'm thinking this prediction method was proved.
3.Earthquake prediction from the low pressure which developed of April 7, 2016
The low pressure with the front goes ahead through the Sea of Japan; passing through the neighborhood of Tohoku at night to the Sanriku offing. It rained, and wind of the southerliness strongly blew nationwide in West Japan and East Japan.
Maximum instantaneous wind speed 43.9 meters (wind of the south-southwest) (it is nine years since then since 2007) was observed in Kumamoto Mount Aso at 09:53 a.m. In addition, in Nagasaki, 35.2m/s (southwestern wind) was observed in Nagasaki in 29.3 meters of maximum instantaneous wind speed (south wind), Unzendake. A record of around April 1 was updated. Based on a predictive method, it was predicted that I ran near Mount Aso from Unzendake, and the earthquake was possible. It was predicted with seven months later after one week at the outbreak time and occurred seven days later.
4.The 2016 Kumamoto earthquake
April 14 21:26 Kumamoto, Kumamoto district M6.5
April 16 01:25 Kumamoto, Kumamoto district M7.3
5.Detailed analysis and conclusion
I showed the maximum instantaneous wind speed of April 7 of all observation points of Kumamoto, Oita of the Meteorological Agency in a separate table, the other figure. The deficit is the point that the maximum instantaneous wind speed is high in. A red frame of the other figure is a frame of the epicenter distribution map of the Meteorological Agency making. From the southwest of Mount Aso to the northeast, there is the domain that the maximum instantaneous wind speed is higher in than the outskirts. This domain almost fits an epicenter distribution map (red frame) of the distinction illustrated Meteorological Agency making. In other words, as well as many other earthquakes, I can predict the scene of earthquake and the volume of earthquake from the maximum instantaneous wind speed before the earthquake occurrence.
Mantle convection and an active fault are not the causes of the earthquake, and the strong wind of the downward air current should think with the cause of the earthquake.