Recent Progress in Space Weather Modeling and Forecasting at NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center

Thomas Berger

Presentation information

International Session (Oral)

Symbol P (Space and Planetary Sciences) » P-EM Solar-Terrestrial Sciences, Space Electromagnetism & Space Environment

[P-EM04] Space Weather, Space Climate, and VarSITI

Sun. May 22, 2016 9:00 AM - 10:30 AM 103 (1F)

Convener:*Ryuho Kataoka(National Institute of Polar Research), Antti Pulkkinen(NASA GSFC), Yusuke Ebihara(Research Institute for Sustainable Humanosphere, Kyoto University), Yoshizumi Miyoshi(Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research, Nagoya University), Toshifumi Shimizu(Institute of Space and Astronautical Science, JAXA), Ayumi Asai(Unit for Synergetic Studies of Space, Kyoto University), Hidekatsu Jin(National Institude of Information and Communications Technology), Tatsuhiko Sato(Japan Atomic Energy Agency), Kanya Kusano(Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research, Nagoya University), Hiroko Miyahara(College of Art and Design, Musashino Art University), Kiminori Itoh(Graduate School of Engineering, Yokohama National University), Kazuo Shiokawa(Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research, Nagoya University), Takuji Nakamura(National Institute of Polar Research), Shigeo Yoden(Division of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Graduate School of Science, Kyoto University), Kiyoshi Ichimoto(Kwasan and Hida Observatories, Kyoto University), Mamoru Ishii(National Institute of Information and Communications Technology), Chair:Ryuho Kataoka(National Institute of Polar Research)

10:15 AM - 10:30 AM

[PEM04-06] Recent Progress in Space Weather Modeling and Forecasting at NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center

★Invited papers

*Thomas Berger¹ (1.National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)

We discuss the current state of the art of space weather modeling and forecasting at the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) in Boulder, Colorado. Recent progress in modeling the solar wind using a data assimilative flux transport model (ADAPT) from the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) has shown that incorporating current and modeled solar magnetic field data results in a better correlation with measurements of the solar wind at the ACE spacecraft in L1 orbit. SWPC is also transitioning the University of Michigan's "Geospace" model to operations, enabling 15-30 minute forecasts of geomagnetic storming and regional K-value predictions. In addition SWPC and the University of Colorado Cooperative Institute for Research in the Environmental Sciences (CIRES) are developing the Whole Atmosphere Model (WAM) and the Ionosphere Plasmasphere Electrodynamics (IPE) coupled system to enable three-day forecasts of ionospheric conditions as well as neutral atmosphere density for satellite drag calculations. In accordance with the new National Space Weather Strategy released by the White House in October 2014, these and other models and products will be integrated into the Space Weather Forecast Office to enable SWPC forecasters to deliver impact-based decision support services to satellite operators, commercial airlines, GNSS users, and electrical grid operators to protect critical infrastructure from the threat of extreme space weather events.