4:20 PM - 4:40 PM
[PEM04-20] Exploring Predictive Performance of Ground dB/dt Models: A Reanalysis of the Geospace Model Transition Challenge
Keywords:Geomagnetically Induced Currents, Space Weather Modeling
This study presents a reanalysis of the Pulkkinen et al.  results to extend our understanding of the models’ capabilities and answer the questions posed above. Data-model errors between predicted and observed magnetometer dB/dt values are binned by activity (solar wind electric field or DST). The bins are arranged to yield error as a function of driving. Input data for empirical relationships, on which the models either rely or of which they comprise entirely, are binned by activity to determine the range of conditions over which each model is valid. A comparison of each model is presented to further illustrate previously published results. Additionally, because GICs are intimately linked to the electrojets which are in turn closely related to field-aligned currents, we also compare Birkeland currents from the different models to observations. For this we use radial current distributions from AMPERE based on the Iridium satellite constellation, providing assessments of the intensities and distributions of the global scale currents every ten minutes. From this new analysis, we place error bars on recent predictions of dB/dt made by the Space Weather Modeling Framework.