4:45 PM - 5:00 PM
[SSS03-12] Prospective validation of physical-based precursors and their potential for short–term earthquake forecasting. Case study for Japan 2014-2016
Keywords:earthquake precursor, forecasting, early warning system
Our validation processes consist in two steps: (1) A continuous retrospective analysis preformed over two different regions with high seismicity- Taiwan and Japan for 2003-2011 (2) Prospective testing with potential for M6.5+ events Japan for 2014-2015 period. The test results suggest appearance of physical pre-earthquakes anomalies, one to several days in advance to major events, including the largest earthquakes - M7.8 of 30 May 2015 and all other M6.5+ for that period. The false alarm ratio for the testing period has shown false positives less then 20%. Our initial prospective tests show that multi-parameter analysis could reveal short-term pre-earthquake anomalies prior to the largest earthquakes in Japan.