Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2016

Presentation information

Oral

Symbol S (Solid Earth Sciences) » S-SS Seismology

[S-SS24] Earthquake prediction and forecast

Thu. May 26, 2016 1:45 PM - 3:15 PM 105 (1F)

Convener:*Junichi Nakajima(Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Tokyo Institute of Technology), Chair:Masami Okada(Meteorological Research Institute), Fuyuki Hirose(Seismology and Tsunami Research Department, Meteorological Research Institute)

2:15 PM - 2:30 PM

[SSS24-03] Earthquake occurrence rate after pre-seismic-like ionospheric disturbance appearance using the DEMETER data

*Shoho Togo1, Hidetoshi Nitta1, Masashi Kamogawa1, Jean-Jacques Berthelier2, Tetsuya Kodama3, Toshiyasu Nagao4 (1.Department of Physics, Tokyo Gakugei University, 2.LATMOS, France, 3.Earth Observation Research, 4.Earthquake Prediction Research Center, Tokai University)

Keywords:Earthquake, DEMETER , Ionosphere

We statistically investigate pre-seismic ionospheric disturbances by using the VLF electric field data of the DEMETER, following Nemec et al. (Geophys. Res. Lett., 2008; J. Geophys. Res.; 2009) and Pisa et al. (J. Geophys. Res., 2013). Our replicated analysis also showed that the background intensity of around 1.7 kHz electric field decreased within 4 hours before the mainshock with magnitude of more than 4.8, using the complete data set of the DEMETER, i.e., 6.5-year.data (Figure 1a). In order to understand the physical mechanism of the depression of the background intensity, we selected 10 orbits highly related to the decrease of the intensity for the event analysis from the whole data. We applied statistical correlation to the whole data evaluating anomaly appearance rate and earthquake occurrence rate.