Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2016

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Oral

Symbol S (Solid Earth Sciences) » S-VC Volcanology

[S-VC47] Active volcanism

Tue. May 24, 2016 1:45 PM - 3:15 PM Convention Hall B (2F)

Convener:*Yosuke Aoki(Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo), Yuta Maeda(Nagoya University), Chair:Takahito Kazama(Graduate School of Science, Kyoto University), Kohei Hotta(Graduate School of Science, Kyoto University)

2:00 PM - 2:15 PM

[SVC47-02] Probabilistic Prediction of Vulcanian Eruptions at the Showa Crater of Sakurajima Based on Ground Inflation

*Masato Iguchi1 (1.Sakurajima Volcano Research Center, Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University)

Keywords:vulcanian eruption, precursory inflation, Probabilistic forecasting

Ground inflation was detected prior to 4422 vulcanian eruptions at Sakurajima by strainmenters. Frequency distributions of duration, amount, mean rate of strain change and ratio of inflation to deflation strain changes associated with eruptions show lognormal distribution. By using the lognormal distribution of the frequency as probability function, it is possible to stochastically forecast occurrence time and scale of the vulcanian eruptions.