[AAS03-P08] Future Changes in the Intraseasonal Variability and Typhoon Activity in a Nonhydrostatic Global Atmospheric Model
Keywords:BSISO, ISV, Global warming, Global model
The simulation results show that the number of BSISO days will significantly decrease in the warmer climate, whereas the number of MJO days will slightly increase in future. The number of typhoons formed in BSISO day during the typhoon season (June-October) will significantly decrease in the warmer climate, whereas the typhoon formation rate for BSISO days will not change. Those results indicate that the number of typhoon formation related to BSISO in the future climate will decrease because the number of BSISO day will decrease. Considering that the predictability of typhoon formation highly rely on that of BSISO (e.g., Nakano et al. 2015), understanding typhoon formation mechanism during no BSISO days would become important to keep the accuracy of typhoon formation prediction in a warmer climate.