Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2018

Presentation information

[JJ] Oral

A (Atmospheric and Hydrospheric Sciences) » A-CC Cryospheric Sciences & Cold District Environment

[A-CC28] Glaciology

Wed. May 23, 2018 10:45 AM - 12:15 PM 106 (1F International Conference Hall, Makuhari Messe)

convener:Takayuki Nuimura(Chiba Institute of Science), Ishikawa Mamoru(Hokkaido University), Kzutaka Tateyama(国立大学法人 北見工業大学, 共同), Hiroto Nagai(Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency), Chairperson:Sunako Sojiro(Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Nagoya University.)

11:15 AM - 11:30 AM

[ACC28-09] Future projection of global-scale glacier mass loss and sea level rise

*Koji Fujita1, Akiko Sakai1 (1.Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Nagoya University)

Keywords:glaciers, sea level rise, future projection

We conducted a global scale future projection of glacier mass loss by an energy-mass balance model [1] with two RCP scenarios (2.6 and 8.5) of 12 GCMs of CMIP5 to contribute GlacierMIP [2]. Following an approach of optimizing precipitation based on an assumption of median elevation as ELA [3, 4], we surveyed optimizing period resulting the best estimate of reconciled glacier mass loss for the period 2003-2009 [5] with ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset. Further calibration was made on GCM air temperatures by referring ERA-Interim air temperature. Glacier hypsometry was simplified with elevations of terminus, median and maximum, and then changed with a conventional area-volume scaling. The estimated glacier mass loss for the validation period (2003-2009) was 183 Gt yr–1 while the reconciled mass loss was 253 Gt yr–1. The projected glacier mass losses were 54.8 and 105.7 mm s.l.e. for RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively. These projections are 55 to 70% of the projections in IPCC AR5 [6].

1. Fujita K, Ageta Y (2000) Effect of summer accumulation on glacier mass balance on the Tibetan Plateau revealed by mass-balance model. Journal of Glaciology, 46, 244-252.
2. Gardner, A. S. et al. (2013) A reconciled estimate of glacier contributions to sea level rise: 2003 to 2009. Science 340, 852–857.
3. Sakai A, et al. (2015) Climate regime of Asian glaciers revealed by GAMDAM Glacier Inventory. The Cryosphere, 9, 865-880.
4. Sakai A, Fujita K (2017) Contrasting glacier responses to recent climate change in high-mountain Asia. Scientific Reports, 7(1), 13717.
5. Hock R (2017) How do glacier inventory data aid global glacier assessments and projections? AGU Fall Meeting Abstract, C51D-01.
6. IPCC-AR5 WG1 (2013) Climate Change.