[A-CG45] Adaptation for climate change and social implementation

[ACG45-07] Economic Evaluation of Adaptation Measures to Climate Change under Uncertainty: The Case of a Kenyan Irrigation Development Project

★Invited Papers

*Daiju Narita^1,2,3, Sato Ichiro⁴, Daikichi Ogawada⁵, Akiko Matsumura⁵ (1.University of Tokyo, 2.JICA Research Institute, 3.Kiel Institute for the World Economy, 4.Japan International Cooperation Agency, 5.Nippon Koei)

Keywords:climate change adaptation, uncertainty, robust decision making (RDM), economic assessment, irrigation, Africa

As climate change adaptation is becoming a recognized issue, the needs are growing in terms of evaluation methodologies of adaptation-related public investments that could reflect the uncertainties of climate change. As an application of the Robust Decision Making (RDM) approach, we conduct a case study of a Kenyan irrigation development project to evaluate the effectiveness of the project on climate change adaptation under uncertainties of climate change and socioeconomic factors through a combination of model simulations. Our first results, which provide a bottom-up perspective of climate change impact on African agriculture, show that despite uncertainties of precipitation trends, high temperatures resulted from climate change have a clear tendency to reduce farmers’ income due to loss of crop yields, and that irrigation development will mitigate that income loss, i.e., it will likely be effective as a means for climate change adaptation. We are currently in the process of making systematic assessment of uncertainties identified in our results based on robustness metrics.