Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2018

Presentation information

[EE] Oral

A (Atmospheric and Hydrospheric Sciences) » A-OS Ocean Sciences & Ocean Environment

[A-OS08] Seasonal-to-decadal climate variability and predictability

Sun. May 20, 2018 1:45 PM - 3:15 PM 301B (3F International Conference Hall, Makuhari Messe)

convener:Takashi Mochizuki(Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology), V Ramaswamy(NOAA GFDL), Yushi Morioka(海洋研究開発機構), Chairperson:Mochizuki Takashi(Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology), Morioka Yushi(Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology)

3:00 PM - 3:15 PM

[AOS08-06] Sub-seasonal to multi-annual predictions using the JMA seasonal prediction system (JMA/MRI-CPS2)

★Invited Papers

*Yuhei Takaya1, Shoji Hirahara2, Yosuke Fujii1, Takahiro Toyoda1, Hiroyuki Sugimoto2, Chihiro Matsukawa2, Satoko Iwasaki2, Takuya Komori2 (1.Meteorological Research Institute, 2.Japan Meteorological Agency)

Keywords:numerical model, atmosphere-ocean interaction, seasonal prediction, sub-seasonal prediction, decadal prediction

During the past two decades, much progress has been made in initialized climate predictions and operational predictions have greatly reaped these benefits. This talk introduces the latest operational seasonal prediction system of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA/MRI-CPS2), which is based on an atmosphere-ocean-land-sea ice coupled model, and advanced atmosphere and ocean data assimilation systems. Sea ice and land components are initialized and greenhouse gasses are specified based on the IPCC AR5 RCP4.5. It embraces fundamental components to make predictions from sub-seasonal to multi-annual time-ranges. We holistically evaluated predictive skills of sub-seasonal and multi-annual predictions in addition to seasonal predictions. Some of the scores show better predictive skills, for instance, surface temperature or precipitation in the tropics up to one month compared with the operational sub-seasonal system, and comparable multi-annual predictive skills to the CMIP decadal prediction models. These promising results suggest that this system, which was originally developed for the operational seasonal prediction, is applicable to predictions of various time-ranges. This presentation also illustrates some examples of reforecasts and real-time forecast evaluations to highlight underlying mechanisms to give the relatively high predictability in the Asian region for sub-seasonal to multi-annual time-scales, resulting from successful predictions of ENSO and its inter-basin interactions with the Indian Ocean, western North Pacific and Asian monsoons.