Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2018

Presentation information

[EE] Oral

A (Atmospheric and Hydrospheric Sciences) » A-OS Ocean Sciences & Ocean Environment

[A-OS08] Seasonal-to-decadal climate variability and predictability

Sun. May 20, 2018 3:30 PM - 5:00 PM 301B (3F International Conference Hall, Makuhari Messe)

convener:Takashi Mochizuki(Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology), V Ramaswamy(NOAA GFDL), Yushi Morioka(海洋研究開発機構), Chairperson:Ramaswamy V(NOAA GFDL), Mochizuki Takashi(Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology)

4:15 PM - 4:30 PM

[AOS08-10] El Niño Prediction by Using a 4 Dimensional Variational Approach

★Invited Papers

*Shuhei Masuda1 (1.Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology)

Keywords:El Niño, data assimilation, climate change

The enormous societal importance of accurate seasonal-to-interannual (S-I) forecasts has been recognized. Four-dimensional variational (4D-Var) coupled data assimilation is promising tool to make an advanced initialial conditions and to resolve uncertainties of model parameters for enhancement of S-I prediction skill. We have carried out wide variety of hindcast experiments by using a 4D-Var coupled data assimilation system, to investigate the potential ability of El Niño prediction. Here we put stress on the role played by tropical seasonality, which is changing on pentadal to decadal timescales, in the evolution of the El Niño. The hindcast results show that El Niño predictions will inevitably be uncertain if this change is neglected.