日本地球惑星科学連合2018年大会

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[EE] ポスター発表

セッション記号 A (大気水圏科学) » A-OS 海洋科学・海洋環境

[A-OS09] Marine ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles: theory, observation and modeling

2018年5月23日(水) 15:30 〜 17:00 ポスター会場 (幕張メッセ国際展示場 7ホール)

コンビーナ:伊藤 進一(東京大学大気海洋研究所)、平田 貴文(北海道大学地球環境科学研究院)、Eileen E Hofmann (共同)、Enrique N Curchitser (Rutgers University New Brunswick)

[AOS09-P10] A challenge to evaluate effect of climate change on Japanese anchovy (Engraulis japonicus) in the East China Sea IV

*伊藤 進一1瀬藤 聡2長谷川 徹2北島 聡2髙須賀 明典2吉江 直樹3奥西 武2髙橋 素光2米田 道夫2天野 裕平4小路口 拡輝4郭 晨颖1 (1.東京大学大気海洋研究所、2.(国)水産研究・教育機構、3.愛媛大学、4.鹿児島県水産技術開発センター)

キーワード:生態系モデル、魚類成長-回遊モデル、カタクチイワシ、気候変化

We have evaluated climate change (global warming) effects on Japanese anchovy (Engraulis japonicus) larvae in the East China Sea by integrating a fish-migration and growth model using environmental conditions derived from simulations of a coupled ocean circulation and ecosystem model with contemporary and future climate forcing. For the ocean circulation model, a high resolution (1/10 deg.) FRA-ROMS (Fisheries Research Agency - Regional Ocean Modeling System) was used. For the marine ecosystem model, eNEMURO, an extended version of NEMURO (North Pacific Ecosystem Model for Understanding Regional Oceanography) was used. For contemporary and future climate forcing, the output of MRI-CGCM3 with the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) were averaged during 2011-2020, 2051-2060 and 2091-2100, the FRA-ROMS-eNEMURO was integrated with those climatological forcing for 26 years and the simulated results in the last year were used to integrate the fish-migration and growth model (FRA-ROMS-eNEMURO.FISH). The initial spawning grounds were estimated based on the sea surface temperature (SST) and day length with limitation of ocean depth less than 1000 m. The spawning grounds shifted to northward under warming conditions however because of day length limitation, the available eggs decreased by the northward shift. The larvae transported to southern part of Kyushu Island in Japan (current main fisheries ground for anchovy larvae) were projected to decrease under warming conditions and the peak timing of larvae supply was shifted earlier. The projected results indicate severe conditions of local fisheries in the southern part of Kyushu Island.