Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2018

Presentation information

[EE] Evening Poster

A (Atmospheric and Hydrospheric Sciences) » A-AS Atmospheric Sciences, Meteorology & Atmospheric Environment

[A-AS03] Advances in Tropical Cyclone Research: Past, Present, and Future

Wed. May 23, 2018 5:15 PM - 6:30 PM Poster Hall (International Exhibition Hall7, Makuhari Messe)

convener:Masuo Nakano(JAMSTEC Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology), Akiyoshi Wada(Typhoon Research Department Meteorological Research Institute), Sachie Kanada(名古屋大学宇宙地球環境研究所, 共同), Kosuke Ito(University of the Ryukyus)

[AAS03-P02] Climatic properties of typhoons deduced from Monte Carlo simulation with a data-driven stochastic model

★Invited Papers

*Shin'ya Nakano1 (1.The Institute of Statistical Mathematics)

Keywords:typhoon, inter-annual variation, decadal variation

Typhoons are one of major causes of serious natural disasters in the
East Asia region. It is thus important to evaluate the statistical
(climatic) properties of typhoon and to assess the risks of typhoon
hazards. Since the effect of the climate change during the last several
decades is emerging, climatic variations of typhoons would also be
important issue. However, since the number of typhoons in each year
is small, it is difficult to distinguish between climatic variations
and random properties of typhoons.
In order to enable us to evaluate climatic variations of typhoons,
we are developing an experimental framework based on a data-driven
stochastic simulator. This stochastic simulator is obtained by
statistical analysis of the data of past typhoon trajectories for
more than sixty years, and it can generate various possible typhoon
scenarios under a given condition.
This approach does not consider physical mechanisms of typhoosn.
Moreover, at present, the behaviors of the artificial typhoons
generated from our stochastic model have some biases probably
because of the limitation of the statistical model.
Nonetheless, this approach provides a means of examining qualitative
characteristics of the climatic variations of typhoons.

Our stochastic model consists of three modules which describe
the three processes: genecis, transition, and dissipation.
Since each of the three modules of our model considers inter-annual
variations, we can discuss the effects of each of the three processes
on climatic variations of typhoons. In this study, we examine the
effects on the frequency of approaching the main islands of Japan.