[AAS03-P02] Climatic properties of typhoons deduced from Monte Carlo simulation with a data-driven stochastic model
★Invited Papers
キーワード：台風、年々変動、長期変動
Typhoons are one of major causes of serious natural disasters in the
East Asia region. It is thus important to evaluate the statistical
(climatic) properties of typhoon and to assess the risks of typhoon
hazards. Since the effect of the climate change during the last several
decades is emerging, climatic variations of typhoons would also be
important issue. However, since the number of typhoons in each year
is small, it is difficult to distinguish between climatic variations
and random properties of typhoons.
In order to enable us to evaluate climatic variations of typhoons,
we are developing an experimental framework based on a data-driven
stochastic simulator. This stochastic simulator is obtained by
statistical analysis of the data of past typhoon trajectories for
more than sixty years, and it can generate various possible typhoon
scenarios under a given condition.
This approach does not consider physical mechanisms of typhoosn.
Moreover, at present, the behaviors of the artificial typhoons
generated from our stochastic model have some biases probably
because of the limitation of the statistical model.
Nonetheless, this approach provides a means of examining qualitative
characteristics of the climatic variations of typhoons.
Our stochastic model consists of three modules which describe
the three processes: genecis, transition, and dissipation.
Since each of the three modules of our model considers inter-annual
variations, we can discuss the effects of each of the three processes
on climatic variations of typhoons. In this study, we examine the
effects on the frequency of approaching the main islands of Japan.
East Asia region. It is thus important to evaluate the statistical
(climatic) properties of typhoon and to assess the risks of typhoon
hazards. Since the effect of the climate change during the last several
decades is emerging, climatic variations of typhoons would also be
important issue. However, since the number of typhoons in each year
is small, it is difficult to distinguish between climatic variations
and random properties of typhoons.
In order to enable us to evaluate climatic variations of typhoons,
we are developing an experimental framework based on a data-driven
stochastic simulator. This stochastic simulator is obtained by
statistical analysis of the data of past typhoon trajectories for
more than sixty years, and it can generate various possible typhoon
scenarios under a given condition.
This approach does not consider physical mechanisms of typhoosn.
Moreover, at present, the behaviors of the artificial typhoons
generated from our stochastic model have some biases probably
because of the limitation of the statistical model.
Nonetheless, this approach provides a means of examining qualitative
characteristics of the climatic variations of typhoons.
Our stochastic model consists of three modules which describe
the three processes: genecis, transition, and dissipation.
Since each of the three modules of our model considers inter-annual
variations, we can discuss the effects of each of the three processes
on climatic variations of typhoons. In this study, we examine the
effects on the frequency of approaching the main islands of Japan.