[A-CG39] 熱帯インド洋・太平洋におけるマルチスケール大気海洋相互作用

[ACG39-P01] 高解像度熱帯海洋ネストモデルを組み込んだ地球システムモデルによるENSO予測

*今田 由紀子¹、山中 吾郎¹、辻野 博之¹、浦川 昇吾¹、高槻 靖¹ (1.気象庁気象研究所)

キーワード：季節予測、ENSO予測、高解像度熱帯海洋ネストモデル

Mesoscale eddies in the tropical oceans have significant impacts on the oceanic mean states, atmospheric circulation, ENSO characteristics, and other natural variabilities. Here, we found a significant improvement of ENSO prediction skill by incorporating a high-resolution tropical ocean nesting model into a seasonal prediction system based on an earth system model MRI-ESM1. Because of the realistic representation of tropical instability waves (TIWs), the simulated eddy heat flux improves not only tropical oceanic mean states but also spatial distributions of mean surface wind stress and precipitation in the nested version of MRI-ESM1. ENSO characteristics (amplitude, period, spatial pattern, asymmetricity, teleconnection) are also modified through the changes of mean state, resulting in more accurate ENSO prediction several months ahead.