Keywords:ecosystem model, fish growth-migration model, Japanese anchovy, climate change
We have evaluated climate change (global warming) effects on Japanese anchovy (Engraulis japonicus) larvae in the East China Sea by integrating a fish-migration and growth model using environmental conditions derived from simulations of a coupled ocean circulation and ecosystem model with contemporary and future climate forcing. For the ocean circulation model, a high resolution (1/10 deg.) FRA-ROMS (Fisheries Research Agency - Regional Ocean Modeling System) was used. For the marine ecosystem model, eNEMURO, an extended version of NEMURO (North Pacific Ecosystem Model for Understanding Regional Oceanography) was used. For contemporary and future climate forcing, the output of MRI-CGCM3 with the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) were averaged during 2011-2020, 2051-2060 and 2091-2100, the FRA-ROMS-eNEMURO was integrated with those climatological forcing for 26 years and the simulated results in the last year were used to integrate the fish-migration and growth model (FRA-ROMS-eNEMURO.FISH). The initial spawning grounds were estimated based on the sea surface temperature (SST) and day length with limitation of ocean depth less than 1000 m. The spawning grounds shifted to northward under warming conditions however because of day length limitation, the available eggs decreased by the northward shift. The larvae transported to southern part of Kyushu Island in Japan (current main fisheries ground for anchovy larvae) were projected to decrease under warming conditions and the peak timing of larvae supply was shifted earlier. The projected results indicate severe conditions of local fisheries in the southern part of Kyushu Island.