Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2018

Presentation information

[JJ] Evening Poster

M (Multidisciplinary and Interdisciplinary) » M-IS Intersection

[M-IS19] Atmospheric electricity

Tue. May 22, 2018 5:15 PM - 6:30 PM Poster Hall (International Exhibition Hall7, Makuhari Messe)

convener:Yasuhide Hobara(Graduate School of Information and Engineering Department of Communication Engineering and Informatics, The University of Electro-Communications), Masashi Kamogawa(Department of Physics, Tokyo Gakugei University)

[MIS19-P04] Predication of ULF geomagnetic field based on nonlinear system identification approach

*Hayato Iibuchi1, Hendy Santosa1, Yasuhide Hobara1, Michael A Balikhin2, Richard Boynton2 (1.The University of Electro-Communications, 2.The University of Sheffield, UK)

Keywords:ULF, Geomagnetic field variation, Nonlinear system identification, Prediction

Nonlinear Auto Regressive Moving Average Model with Exogenous Inputs (NARMAX) was applied to the time series of terrestrial ULF geomagnetic field. The one-step-ahead (OSA) prediction model was built with Orthogonal Least Square (OLS) methodology, which can unveil significant and important quantities for geomagnetic field variation. As a result, the correlation coefficient between predicted and observed values was found to be around 0.8. Moreover, the model shows a good prediction performance. Furthermore, the model suggests some controlling parameter in relation with solar activity and inner radiation belt.