Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2018

Presentation information

[EE] Evening Poster

H (Human Geosciences) » H-CG Complex & General

[H-CG21] Climate-human system interaction

Mon. May 21, 2018 5:15 PM - 6:30 PM Poster Hall (International Exhibition Hall7, Makuhari Messe)

convener:Kaoru Tachiiri(Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology), Tokuta Yokohata(National Institute for Environmental Studies), Katsumasa Tanaka(国立環境研究所, 共同), KIYOSHI TAKAHASHI(National Institute for Environmental Studies)

[HCG21-P08] Paris Agreement zero emissions goal is not always consistent with 2°C and 1.5°C temperature targets

*Katsumasa Tanaka1, Brian O'Neill2 (1.National Institute for Environmetal Studies, 2.National Center for Atmospheric Research)

Keywords:Paris Agreement, Integrated Assessment Models, Simple Climate Models, Zero emissions, Emission metrics

The Paris Agreement stipulates that global warming be stabilized at well-below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, with aims to further constrain this warming to 1.5°C. However, it also calls for reducing net anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to zero during the second half of this century. Here, we use a reduced-form Integrated Assessment Model to examine the dependency between temperature and emission-based targets. We find that net-zero GHG emissions are not necessarily required to remain below 1.5°C or 2°C, assuming either target can be achieved without overshoot. With overshoot, however, our analysis suggests that the emissions goal is consistent with the temperature targets; substantial negative emissions are required to reduce warming after it peaks. Temperature targets are put at risk by late achievement of emissions goals and some GHG emission metrics. Therefore, refinement of Paris Agreement emissions goals should include a focus on net zero CO2 – not GHG – emissions, achieved early in the second half of the century.