[HRE13-P04] Verification for 1 day time series of the near surface wind speed forecast from the numerical weather prediction model according to the classification of the surface pressure pattern
Keywords:Wind speed, Numerical weather prediction, Classification, Time series
In this work we investigated the characteristics for 1 day time series of near surface wind predicted using the NWP model and verified the prediction skill for the predicted 1 day time series according to the classification of surface pressure patterns. The surface pressure from the NWP mode is classified using the self-organization map (SOM) method. Composite 1 day time series of the near surface wind speed for each surface pressure patterns are computed from forecast data from one to twenty four hours ahead on the nearest grid of a ground observation station. Composite time series of observed wind speed is also computed. It is found that characteristics of time series for each surface pressure pattern is different. Comparing the composite of NWP time series with that of observed time series the accuracy are different between surface pressure patterns. This result indicates that the prediction skill for the near surface wind of the NWP model varies according to the surface pressure pattern.