10:45 AM - 11:00 AM
[SSS06-01] Increasing Testability, Expanding Possibilities. Some CSEP Future Developments
Keywords:Earthquake Forecasting, Statistical Seismology, Forecast Testing
In the framework of the testing activities of the Global Earthquake Model, one line of expanding the capabilities of CSEP was developed. The mechanisms that CSEP introduced to earthquake forecast models were applied to the area of intensity prediction equations (IPEs) and ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs). First truly prospective tests were carried out on IPEs for Italy and also on GMPEs for Japan and New Zealand. These tests helped CSEP move into the hazard domain and increase the relevance of its results to the hazard community. Finally, first prospective test of the US national seismic hazard maps were conducted. Although these tests have been successful and well-received, they have also shown the limitations of the CSEP approach. Many aspects of seismic hazard or earthquake forecasting remain inherently untestable if only the model forecasts are tested and not the model ingredients.
We will continue along the lines of these developments and create new areas of activity for CSEP, namely targeted experiments that currently cannot be conducted with the current CSEP software system. This includes the predictive power of b-values, discrimination of foreshocks for short-term forecasting, as well as a deeper look into precursory phenomena applying CSEP-style rigorous testing. To further support model testing for hazard assessment, CSEP will introduce testing of models forecasting finite ruptures. During the next years, the CSEP system will be expanded to cover these new experiments and simultaneously simplified to increase accessiblity for researchers to become an integral part of model development. As part of the EFEHR-EPOS ground-shaking models service, we will introduce permanent testing of IPEs and GMPEs to the testing center to establish strong performance records to be used in European hazard models. We support including testability in future hazard models or their components to move to better testable seismic hazard models. Finally, to expand into the risk domain, we will test exposure models against new and independent data.
We report on the achievements of CSEP over the past decade, the plans for future experiments, the directions of future development of CSEP, and the scientific challenges that CSEP addresses.