日本地球惑星科学連合2018年大会

講演情報

[JJ] ポスター発表

セッション記号 S (固体地球科学) » S-TT 計測技術・研究手法

[S-TT51] ハイパフォーマンスコンピューティングが拓く固体地球科学の未来

2018年5月23日(水) 13:45 〜 15:15 ポスター会場 (幕張メッセ国際展示場 7ホール)

コンビーナ:堀 高峰(独立行政法人海洋研究開発機構・地震津波海域観測研究開発センター)、八木 勇治(国立大学法人 筑波大学大学院 生命環境系)、汐見 勝彦(国立研究開発法人防災科学技術研究所)

[STT51-P01] A Proposal of Monitoring and Forecasting Method for Crustal Activity in and Around Japan with 3D Heterogeneous Medium Using a Large-Scale High-Fidelity Finite Element Simulation

*堀 高峰1 (1.独立行政法人海洋研究開発機構・地震津波海域観測研究開発センター)

キーワード:地震予測、3次元不均質、高詳細

Recently, we can obtain continuous dense surface deformation data on land and partly on the sea floor. The obtained data are not fully utilized for monitoring and forecasting of crustal activity, such as spatio-temporal variation in slip velocity on the plate interface including earthquakes, seismic wave propagation, and crustal deformation. For construct a system for monitoring and forecasting, it is necessary to develop a physics-based data analysis system including (1) a structural model with the 3D geometry of the plate interface and the material property such as elasticity and viscosity, (2) calculation code for crustal deformation and seismic wave propagation using (1), (3) inverse analysis or data assimilation code both for structure and fault slip using (1) & (2). To accomplish this, it is at least necessary to develop highly reliable large-scale simulation code to calculate crustal deformation and seismic wave propagation for 3D heterogeneous structure. Unstructured FE non-linear seismic wave simulation code has been developed. This achieved physics-based urban earthquake simulation enhanced by 1.08 T DOF x 6.6 K time-step. A high fidelity FEM simulation code with mesh generator has also been developed to calculate crustal deformation in and around Japan with complicated surface topography and subducting plate geometry for 1km mesh. This code has been improved the code for crustal deformation and achieved 2.05 T-DOF with 45m resolution on the plate interface. This high-resolution analysis enables computation of change of stress acting on the plate interface. Further, for inverse analyses, waveform inversion code for modeling 3D crustal structure has been developed, and the high-fidelity FEM code has been improved to apply an adjoint method for estimating fault slip and asthenosphere viscosity. Hence, we have large-scale simulation and analysis tools for monitoring. We are developing the methods for forecasting the slip velocity variation on the plate interface. Although the prototype is for elastic half space model, we are applying it for 3D heterogeneous structure with the high-fidelity FE model. Furthermore, large-scale simulation codes for monitoring are being implemented on the GPU clusters and analysis tools are developing to include other functions such as examination in model errors.