[A-CG35] Projection and detection of global environmental change

Wed. May 29, 2019 5:15 PM - 6:30 PM Poster Hall (International Exhibition Hall8, Makuhari Messe)

convener:Michio Kawamiya(Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology), Hiroaki Tatebe(Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology), Kaoru Tachiiri(Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology)

Anthropogenic forcings on global environment are expected to cause intensification of extreme events, sea level rise, ocean acidification and deoxygenation, as well as large-scale ecosystem changes. The CMIP6 experimental protocol has been established based on which modeling groups across the world are starting to provide environmental projection data toward 6th IPCC assessment report due in 2021. Various new types of studies, such as event attribution and coupling of socio-economic processes and Earth system dynamics, are also emerging in the field of global change projection. In addition, observational studies are becoming increasingly more important for grasping changes in the global environment and evaluating model projections. Interactions and collaborations beyond boundaries of conventional scientific disciplines are desired for dealing with the issue of global changes. This session thus aims to deepen our understanding on global change, from both disciplinary and interdisciplinary viewpoints. This session is co-organized by AIMES - Future Earth project "Analysis, Integration and Modelling of the Earth System" (https://aimesproject.org/).

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[ACG35-P01] World Regionalization of Climate Change (1961–2010)

*Shao Sun^1,2, Peijun Shi^2,3,4, Daoyi Gong², Tao Zhou² (1.National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China, 2.State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China, 3.Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster of Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China, 4.Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Civil Affairs & Ministry of Education, Beijing 100875, China)

[ACG35-P02] Quantifying and identifying future climate signal, noise, and internal variability at finer temporal scales

*Jongho Kim¹, Manh Van Doi¹ (1.University of Ulsan)

[ACG35-P03] Basic evaluation of MIROC6 and current status of CMIP6 experiments

*Hiroaki Tatebe¹ (1.Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology)

[ACG35-P04] Synchronized increase of extreme cold and warm events in China during the recent global warming slowdown

*Xiubao Sun^1,3, Chunzai Wang¹, Guoyu Ren^2,3, Panfeng Zhang² (1.State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography (LTO), South China Sea Institute of Oceanology(SCSIO), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), 2.Department of Atmospheric Science, School of Environmental Studies, China University of Geosciences (CUG), 3.Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center (NCC), China Meteorological Administration (CMA))

[ACG35-P05] Quantification of thermodynamical and dynamical contributions to the anthropogenic influences on tropical cyclone rainfall extremes

*Cheng-Ta Chen¹, Shih-How Lo¹, Chung-Chieh Wang¹, Kazuhisa Tsuboki² (1.Department of Earth Sciences, National Taiwan Normal University, 2.Hydrospheric-Atmospheric Research Center, Nagoya University)

[ACG35-P06] Temporal Evolution of the Long-Term Distributional Biases of Climate Models as a Parameter for the Regional Evaluation of the Simulation of Climate Change

*Martin Gomez-Garcia¹, Akiko Matsumura¹, Shiro Hishinuma¹, Daikichi Ogawada¹ (1.Nippon Koei Co. Ltd., Reasearch and Development Center)

[ACG35-P07] A global simulation of bioenergy crop yield

*Zhipin Ai¹, Naota Hanasaki¹ (1.National Institute for Environmental Studies)

[ACG35-P08] Integrated Research Program for Advancing Climate Models - Theme B: national research program in Japan on earth system modeling

*Michio Kawamiya¹, Tomohiro Hajima¹, Kaoru Tachiiri¹, Jun'ichi Tsutsui², Tokuta Yokohata³, Takashi Arakawa⁴, Takahiro Inoue⁴ (1.Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, 2.Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, 3.National Institute for Environmental Studies, 4.Research Organization for Information Science and Technology)

[ACG35-P09] Towards probabilistic climate projections based on the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble

*Junichi Tsutsui¹ (1.Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry)

[ACG35-P10] Effect on the earth system of realizing 1.5 degree climate target by overshooting after reaching 2 degree level

*Kaoru Tachiiri¹, Herran Diego Silva², Xuanming Su¹, Michio Kawamiya¹ (1.Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, 2.Institute for Global Environmental Strategies)

[ACG35-P11] Historical regional and sectoral contributions to climate change

*Xuanming Su¹, Kaoru Tachiiri¹, Katsumasa TANAKA², Michio Watanabe¹ (1.Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, 2.National Institute for Environmental Studies)

[ACG35-P12] Future projection of global climate, water, food, bio-energy, and land investigated with MIROC-INTEG: a global bio-geophysical land surface model with human components

*Tokuta Yokohata¹, Yusuke Satoh¹, Tsuguki Kinoshita², Gen Sakurai³, Yadu Pokhrel⁴, Akihiko Ito¹, Etsushi Kato⁵, Masashi Okada¹, Naota Hanasaki¹, Tomoko Nitta⁶, Seita Emori¹ (1.National Institute for Environmental Studies, 2.Ibaraki University, 3.National Agriculture and Food Research Organization, 4.Michigan State University, 5.The Institute of Applied Energy, 6.University of Tokyo)

[ACG35-P13] Downscaling a global agricultural land use model to country level for national SSP analysis

*Wenchao Wu¹, Tomoko Hasegawa¹, Kiyoshi Takahashi¹, Shinichiro Fujimori² (1.National Institute for Environmental Studies, 2.Kyoto Univ.)

[ACG35-P14] Extreme Events and Emergent Trends in Marine Ecosystem Stressors under a historical/RCP8.5 Climate Change Pathway

*Keith Bradley Rodgers^1,2, Sarah Schlunegger³, Richard Slater³, Burke Hales⁴, Axel Timmermann^1,2 (1.IBS Center for Climate Physics, Busan, South Korea, 2.Pusan National University, Busan, South Korea, 3.AOS Program, Princeton University, Princeton NJ, USA, 4.College of Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State Universitym, Corvallis, OR, USA)

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