[S-SS07] Rigorous Seismicity Modelling and Hypothesis Testing

Mon. May 27, 2019 5:15 PM - 6:30 PM Poster Hall (International Exhibition Hall8, Makuhari Messe)

convener:Jiancang Zhuang(Institute of Statistical Mathematics), Danijel Schorlemmer(GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences), Matt Gerstenberger(GNS Science), Hiroshi Tsuruoka(Earthquake Research Institute, Tokyo Univ.)

Probabilistic models have been developed for describing, analyzing, and forecasting seismicity
since more than 100 years and, with the advent of large-scale digital networks, in high
resolution during the last 30 years. These models include recurrence and stress-release models
for long-term earthquake hazard assessment, and short-term models describing earthquake
clustering, e.g. the ETAS model. Some models have become standard tools in seismic hazard
assessment. However, the overall probabilities remain on the low end and the uncertainties of
the forecasts are not well described. Rigorous data-based development and testing of models
will help further improving forecasting power and accuracy of these models. Similarly, new
hypotheses shall be evaluated rigorously using some existing model as the null hypothesis
model or in dedicated tests addressing the hypothesis directly. In this context, the Collaboratory
for the Study of Earthquake Predictability and its Japan branch provides the necessary testing
capabilities for rigorous and unbiased evaluation of models and hypotheses. This session
focuses on research that increases information on seismicity, being with respect to a reference
model or as an independent hypothesis. We solicit contributions of model developments and
hypothesis formulation based on the increased understanding of the physical process of
earthquakes, such as the preparation and rupture processes of the earthquake source and the
interaction between earthquakes and tectonic environments. We also welcome development
and implementation of improved statistical methods for testing and validating physical
hypotheses based on observed data. In particular, we welcome contributions about model- or
hypothesis-test experiments that could be implemented in the Japan testing center.

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[SSS07-P01] Development of Physics-based Ground Motion Simulation in A Hybrid Approach and Applications to Seismic Hazard Assessment in Taiwan

*Ming-Che Hsieh¹, Yin-Tung Yen¹, Kuo-Fong Ma^2,3 (1.Disaster Prevention Technology Research Center, Sinotech Engineering Consultants (Inc.), Taiwan, 2.Department of Earth Sciences, National Central University, Taiwan, 3.Earthquake-Disaster & Risk Evaluation and Management Center, National Central University, Taiwan)

[SSS07-P02] Increasing Earthquake Forecast Testability - CSEP Future Developments

*Danijel Schorlemmer¹, Naoshi Hirata², Fabrice Cotton¹, Matt Gerstenberger³, Thomas Jordan⁷, Warner Marzocchi⁴, William Savran⁷, Maximilian Werner⁵, Stefan Wiemer⁶, Thomas Beutin¹, David D Jackson⁸, Philip Maechling⁷, Sum Mak¹, Kazuyoshi Nanjo⁹, Yosihiko Ogata¹⁰, David Rhoades³, Hiroshi Tsuruoka², Graeme Weatherill¹, Jiancang Zhuang¹⁰ (1.GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, 2.Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Japan, 3.GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New Zealand, 4.University of Naples, Naples, Italy, 5.University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom, 6.ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland, 7.University of Southern California, Los Angeles, USA, 8.University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, USA, 9.University of Shizuoka, Shizuoka, Japan, 10.Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tachikawa, Japan)

[SSS07-P03] Precision versus uncertainty in regional seismic hazard mapping

*Matt Gerstenberger¹, Danijel Schorlemmer² (1.GNS Science, 2.GFZ-Potsdam)

[SSS07-P04] An extreme value analysis of seismograms designed for early forecast of aftershocks

*Kaoru Sawazaki¹ (1.National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience)

[SSS07-P05] Spatio-temporal clustering of successive earthquakes: data analyses of global data.

*THYSTERE MATONDO BANTIDI¹, Takeshi Nishimura¹ (1.Tohoku University)

[SSS07-P06] Kanto 3 month testing class results of CSEP Japan

*Hiroshi Tsuruoka¹, Naoshi Hirata¹ (1.Earthquake Research Institute, Tokyo Univ.)

[SSS07-P07] Long-term earthquake risk in North China estimated from a modern catalogue

Ziyao Xiong², *Jiancang Zhuang¹, Shiyong Zhou² (1.Institute of Statistical Mathematics, 2.Peking University)

[SSS07-P08] Distributions of focal mechanisms in background seismicity and earthquake clusters in Japan

*Jiancang Zhuang^1,2, Eri Maita² (1.Institute of Statistical Mathematics, 2.Graduate University for Advanced Studies)

[SSS07-P09] New Ground Motion Prediction Equations for Western Saudi Arabia

*Ryota Kiuchi^1,2, Walter Mooney¹, Hani Zahran³ (1.U.S. Geological Survey, 2.Disaster Prevenetion Research Institute, Kyoto University, 3.Saudi Geological Survey)

[SSS07-P10] Study on the spatial and temporal change of velocity structure before and after 2003 Chengkung earthquake, Taiwan

*TING YA LIANG¹, Wen-Yen Chang^1,2,3, Strong Wen⁴ (1.National DONG HWA University, 2.Eastern Taiwan Earthquake Research Center, 3.National Center for Research on Earthquake Engineering, 4.National Chung Cheng University)

Session information