Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2019

Session information

[E] Poster

S (Solid Earth Sciences ) » S-SS Seismology

[S-SS07] Rigorous Seismicity Modelling and Hypothesis Testing

Mon. May 27, 2019 5:15 PM - 6:30 PM Poster Hall (International Exhibition Hall8, Makuhari Messe)

convener:Jiancang Zhuang(Institute of Statistical Mathematics), Danijel Schorlemmer(GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences), Matt Gerstenberger(GNS Science), Hiroshi Tsuruoka(Earthquake Research Institute, Tokyo Univ.)

Probabilistic models have been developed for describing, analyzing, and forecasting seismicity
since more than 100 years and, with the advent of large-scale digital networks, in high
resolution during the last 30 years. These models include recurrence and stress-release models
for long-term earthquake hazard assessment, and short-term models describing earthquake
clustering, e.g. the ETAS model. Some models have become standard tools in seismic hazard
assessment. However, the overall probabilities remain on the low end and the uncertainties of
the forecasts are not well described. Rigorous data-based development and testing of models
will help further improving forecasting power and accuracy of these models. Similarly, new
hypotheses shall be evaluated rigorously using some existing model as the null hypothesis
model or in dedicated tests addressing the hypothesis directly. In this context, the Collaboratory
for the Study of Earthquake Predictability and its Japan branch provides the necessary testing
capabilities for rigorous and unbiased evaluation of models and hypotheses. This session
focuses on research that increases information on seismicity, being with respect to a reference
model or as an independent hypothesis. We solicit contributions of model developments and
hypothesis formulation based on the increased understanding of the physical process of
earthquakes, such as the preparation and rupture processes of the earthquake source and the
interaction between earthquakes and tectonic environments. We also welcome development
and implementation of improved statistical methods for testing and validating physical
hypotheses based on observed data. In particular, we welcome contributions about model- or
hypothesis-test experiments that could be implemented in the Japan testing center.

*Danijel Schorlemmer1, Naoshi Hirata2, Fabrice Cotton1, Matt Gerstenberger3, Thomas Jordan7, Warner Marzocchi4, William Savran7, Maximilian Werner5, Stefan Wiemer6, Thomas Beutin1, David D Jackson8, Philip Maechling7, Sum Mak1, Kazuyoshi Nanjo9, Yosihiko Ogata10, David Rhoades3, Hiroshi Tsuruoka2, Graeme Weatherill1, Jiancang Zhuang10 (1.GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, 2.Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Japan, 3.GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New Zealand, 4.University of Naples, Naples, Italy, 5.University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom, 6.ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland, 7.University of Southern California, Los Angeles, USA, 8.University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, USA, 9.University of Shizuoka, Shizuoka, Japan, 10.Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tachikawa, Japan)




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