[A-CG35] Projection and detection of global environmental change

[ACG35-08] Uneven distributions of four hazard indicators of climate change with the Paris Agreement’s goals

*Hideo Shiogama¹ (1.Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies)

Keywords:Climate change, Paris Agreement

Clarifying characteristics of hazards and risks of climate change at 2ºC and 1.5ºC global warming is important for understanding the implications of the Paris Agreement. We perform and analyse large ensembles of 2ºC and 1.5ºC warming simulations. In the 2ºC runs, we find substantial increases in extreme hot days, heavy rainfalls, high streamflow and labor capacity reduction related to heat stress. For example, about half of the world's population will experience a present day 1-in-10 year hot day event every other year at 2ºC warming. The regions with largely increases of these four hazard indicators coincide with countries characterized by small CO₂ emissions, low-income and high vulnerability. Limiting global warming to 1.5ºC, compared to 2ºC, will lower increases in the four hazard indicators especially in those regions.