[A-CG35] 地球規模環境変化の予測と検出

[ACG35-08] Uneven distributions of four hazard indicators of climate change with the Paris Agreement’s goals

*塩竈 秀夫¹ (1.国立環境研究所地球環境研究センター)

キーワード：気候変動、パリ協定

Clarifying characteristics of hazards and risks of climate change at 2ºC and 1.5ºC global warming is important for understanding the implications of the Paris Agreement. We perform and analyse large ensembles of 2ºC and 1.5ºC warming simulations. In the 2ºC runs, we find substantial increases in extreme hot days, heavy rainfalls, high streamflow and labor capacity reduction related to heat stress. For example, about half of the world's population will experience a present day 1-in-10 year hot day event every other year at 2ºC warming. The regions with largely increases of these four hazard indicators coincide with countries characterized by small CO₂ emissions, low-income and high vulnerability. Limiting global warming to 1.5ºC, compared to 2ºC, will lower increases in the four hazard indicators especially in those regions.